基于科技文献社会网络分析的"一带一路"科技情报安全研究

为明确中国在"一带一路"沿线国家所形成的科技网络中处于怎样的位置,面临怎样的科技情报风险,需要采取哪些措施维护中国科技情报安全,应用智库DIIS理论方法,对科学引文索引中2013年-2017年"一带一路"沿线国家论文合作数据进行社会网络分析,应用管理机制设计"七元组"理论开展科技情报安全机制设计。研究结果显示,中国科技情报的暴露程度较高,科技应用的不可控因素、知识产权保护的挑战、科技情报资源流失的风险同时存在,并与各种非传统安全问题相叠加。切实掌握核心技术,维护知识产权,加强政府、社会对科技交流的监管,防止科技情报被非法利用,是保障科技情报安全的主要途径。     

2005-2018年澜沧江下游流域景观生态安全时空变化及其驱动因素

[目的] 分析澜沧江下游流域景观生态安全时空变化规律和驱动机制，为该流域及流经国家的人与自然协调可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法] 以2005，2010，2015和2018年4期遥感影像为数据源，通过景观指数和GIS空间分析方法评价流域景观生态安全，采用双变量空间自相关方法明确城市、道路、河流、高程、坡度、气温和降水等因素对景观生态安全的驱动作用。[结果] ①2005—2018年，澜沧江下游流域的整体景观生态安全度呈先升后降的变化特征。其中，北部和中西部景观生态安全较差，东部、南部和东南部较好，但也有恶化趋势；②各景观类型中，景观生态安全度从大到小为：水域 > 林地 > 草地 > 耕地 > 建设用地 > 裸地。其中，林地和草地的景观生态安全度存在波动，耕地和水域的景观生态安全度一直上升，而建设用地和裸地的景观生态安全度持续下降；③距城市距离、距道路距离、气温和降水等社会和气象因素对景观生态安全时空变化的驱动作用最强，距河流距离也对景观生态安全的时空变化有一定解释作用，而高程和坡度等地形因素并非澜沧江下游流域景观生态安全时空变化的主要驱动因素。[结论] 应尽量降低由人类活动引起的生态环境负荷，积极发挥气象因素对生态安全的正向效应，促进澜沧江下游流域的人与自然协调可持续发展。     

基于能值理论的长三角沿江城市群生态-经济-社会系统可持续发展态势研究

[目的]对长三角沿江城市群生态—经济—社会系统可持续发展态势进行研究,为该区域生态经济可持续发展提供科学支持。[方法]基于能值理论构建评价指标和评价体系,分析长三角沿江城市群生态—经济—社会系统的可持续发展态势。[结果] 2017年长三角沿江城市群中29%的城市资源过度开发,外部依赖性强;53%的城市环境负载率低,29.4%的城市环境负载率高;11.7%的城市废弃物循环再生能力低;47%的城市能值交换率低,经济竞争力强;35%的城市能值货币率高,经济产出效率低。上海、苏州单位面积能值密度高,23.5%的城市较低;29.4%的城市人均能值福利低;17.6%的城市人口负载率高;41.2%的沿江城市呈可持续发展态势,58.8%的城市呈过度发展态势。[结论] 2017年沿江城市群自给能力、环境压力、生态质量呈现上游城市强、小、优向中游基本协调,下游弱、高、差的渐变态势。上海、苏南城市经济竞争力强,但产出效率低;苏中、皖中地区除省会城市外其他城市竞争力弱;皖南城市经济发展滞后且呈沿江单边孤立发展态势。上海、苏南城市社会可持续发展优,形成人才、资源强吸引同时存在用地短缺问题;苏中城市较均衡并形成弱吸引;除合肥市、铜陵市外,皖中、皖南其他城市发展滞后,缺乏有效吸引。沿江城市群整体可持续发展态势严峻。     

宁夏原州区生态移民村生境景观连接度变化及其驱动因素

[目的]分析生态移民土地利用过程中生境景观连接度变化及其驱动因素,为生态移民的生态风险管理及移民可持续性提供科学依据。[方法]以宁夏原州区"十二五"时期4个生态移民村(丰泽、金轮、和润及泉港)为例,基于2016年高分影像数据,同时参考移民前谷歌地球2010年数据和第二次全国土地调查数据(2010年),经野外GPS校验,通过计算障碍影响指数和生境景观连接度指数,分析生态移民村土地利用生境景观分异。[结果]丰泽村和金轮村的生境景观连接度呈下降态势,和润村和泉港村呈上升态势。4个生态移民村的变化趋势明显,但极高连接度和高连接度比例很小。生态移民村生境景观变化驱动力主要为人为因素,建设用地占用耕地、园地普遍,其中泉港村与和润村建设用地面积年均增长率分别高达27.49%和21.28%,同时金轮村、和润村、泉港村无后备土地资源,生态压力突出。[结论] 4个生态移民村人口密度增大导致建设用地占用耕地明显,生态用地被分割,移民的非农活动比重大造成耕地撂荒,景观破碎化和孤岛化现象明显,生境景观呈现出不稳定状态,生态压力增加。     

Exploring tree diversity and stand structure of savanna woodlands in southeastern Sudan

Savanna woodlands in Sudan host great biodiversity, provide a plethora of ecosystem goods and services to local communities, and sustain numerous ecological functions. Although the importance of the Acacia trees in these areas is well known, up-to-date information about these woodlands' diversity is limited and changes in their woody vegetation composition, density, diversity and relative frequency are not monitored over time. This study explored tree diversity and stand stage structure in Nuara Reserved Forest, a typical savanna woodland ecosystem in southeastern Sudan. A total of 638 circular sample plots (1000 m² for each) were established using a systematic sampling grid method. The distance between plots was 200 m. In each plot, all living trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥5.00 cm were identified and counted, and their DBH values were recorded. From these data, tree composition, diversity, density and stage structure were assessed. There were 12,259 individual trees representing four species (Acacia seyal, Balanites aegyptiaca, Acacia Senegal and Acacia mellifera) that belong to two families. The dominant species was Acacia seyal. Average tree density was 191 trees/hm² and the Shannon-Weiner index for trees diversity was 0.204. Overall, young trees comprised 86.30% of the forest. The state of tree richness and density in the study area was low compared to other similar environments in the region and around the world. We recommended adoption of a proper management system that includes monitoring of woody vegetation diversity in this forest, and management actions to enhance tree diversity and sustain ecosystem services to local communities. In addition to care for the dominant Acacia seyal stands, more attention and conservation should be devoted to reestablishing Acacia senegal and Acacia mellifera trees because of their high ecological and economic values for local communities.     

基于USLE模型的长株潭城市群生态绿心区水土流失研究

[目的]研究2018年长株潭(长沙市—株州市—湘潭市)城市群生态绿心区最佳植被覆盖和水土流失状况,为区域综合治理提供理论依据。[方法]运用GIS和RS技术,以长株潭区域降雨、土壤、地形、土地利用等数据为基础,采用归一化植被指数(NDVI)模型和USLE国际通用土壤流失方程为优选模型。[结果]长株潭绿心区总面积为52 287 hm~2,整体植被状况较好,高覆盖度(75%～100%)面积最大,占绿心区总面积一半以上,为26 598.40 hm~2;中低覆盖度(30%～40%)面积最小,占区域总面积的8.61%,为4 501.91 hm~2。长株潭城市群生态绿心区总侵蚀(不含微度)面积为3 654.24 hm~2,占总面积的6.99%。湘潭市侵蚀比重最高,为8.51%,长沙市次之,为6.67%,株洲市侵蚀总比例最小,为5.68%。工程建设用地在禁止开发区、限制开发区和控制建设区的侵蚀面积分别为963.92,310.74,735.11 hm~2。[结论]受人为因素、城市建设、产业分布等影响,长株潭城市群生态绿心区覆盖度空间呈现西部低,中东部高的格局,工程建设是造成绿心区土壤侵蚀的主要原因。     

Retrospective analysis of the influence of environmental drivers on commercial stocks and fishing opportunities in the Irish Sea

Irish Sea fisheries have undergone considerable change in recent years following the decline of commercially important finfish stocks and their slow response to management's recovery plans. In 2015, the fishing industry called for a holistic exploration into the impact of environmental change and food web effects to identify the drivers underpinning stock dynamics. In this study, we identify correlations between large‐scale climatic indicators, temperature, primary and secondary productivity, and fish recruitment in the Irish Sea and incorporate them into an Ecopath with Ecosim food web model co‐created by scientists and fishers. Negative correlations were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and large zooplankton abundance and between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the recruitment of cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus). Using correlation analyses to direct the addition of environmental drivers to the Irish Sea ecosystem model improved the models fit against observed biomass and catch data and revealed the indirect impacts of environmental change as mitigated through trophic interactions. Model simulations suggest that historic environmental change suppressed the overall production of commercial finfish, limiting opportunities for the fishing industry, whilst also dampening the rate of stock recovery despite marked reductions in fishing effort. These results suggest that failure to account for ecosystem information may lead to misconceived expectations and flawed fisheries management; therefore, there is a need to operationalize ecosystem information through management procedures to support fisheries advice.     

南水北调中线工程生态补偿计算研究

跨流域调水生态补偿的计算方法和考虑因素直接影响着受水区在调水工作中的参与热情.本研究以南水北调陕西汉中、安康、商洛水源区及京、津、冀、豫受水区为研究区,在考虑水源区水土保持建设、受水区水市场情况、水源区水资源价值、水源区排污权损失价值基础上,加入未来水资源调度机会成本、市民意愿支付差价占比及意愿支付补偿额占比,重新计算生态补偿总量.得陕西水源区当前可计算的受水区补偿额为62.42亿元/年.为发展中南水北调中线工程生态补偿计算提供新的计算思路和方法.     

浅谈古聚落理水理念对海绵型乡村建设的启示——以岳阳张谷英村为例

文章以海绵城市理念和乡村振兴政策为指导背景,采用实地考察及文献查阅的研究方法,对岳阳张谷英古聚落选址时自然水系的选择利用及对水系的人工控制进行分析和探讨,试图如实还原符合地域性的理水系统,诠释其从生态环境和人工构筑层面呼应海绵系统的“渗、蓄、滞、净、排、用”六个过程,初步印证“海绵乡村”理念与张谷英古聚落理水理念的一致性,为美丽乡村建设提供一定的启示和借鉴。     

农业生态网在蓝莓生产中的应用

以“蓝丰”作为研究对象，将农业生态网技术应用于蓝莓生产中，调查并对比网内和网外的温度、湿度、风速、光强各项指标，同时研究其对蓝莓果实商品价值的影响。结果表明，农业生态网能够避免鸟害减少烂果，增产增收，提高果品经济价值。以期为农业生态网在农作物生产中的应用提供科学的参考。